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Investors are strange creatures: they wait until the market has risen before they
put money in and then sell out when the market has plunged - or worse, hold on to
a floundering stock, waiting for it to get back to the value they paid for it.
Why
do we behave irrationally? We would not wait for the price of our morning coffee
to go up 20% before buying it, so why do we do this with investments? Why do we panic
when markets drop, even though we knew it would happen? And why do we become attached
to lame ducks when selling them and moving on would get our money back quicker?
Many
theories abound: go back as far as the 18th century and economists such as Adam Smith
were seeking an explanation of why markets behave as they do. One that has gathered
force of late is behavioural finance.
Behavioural finance suggests people often make
decisions based on so-called rules of thumb, rather than after rational analysis.
Technically referred to as heuristics, it involves understanding that the way a problem
is presented can affect the outcome (a process called framing). Therefore, market
inefficiencies are not the only way to explain outcomes that go against rational
expectation.
Two of the most influential psychologists in the field are Daniel Kahneman
and Amos Tversky who, in 1979, published a paper comparing models of rational economic
behaviour with decision-making during times of risk and uncertainty. Their theories
sought to explain anomalies in the way investors and financial markets react.
These
theories help explain how we all got pulled into phenomena such as the technology
boom (mostly too late to make any real money), despite the irrational theories that
tend to support them.
They also help explain why we sell out of a falling market,
just when our loss is at its greatest, and why we hold on to ‘loved’ investments
long after they have started to go wrong. And it is why we shy away from markets
that have underperformed, despite indications of great potential.
Increasingly, asset
managers are using pricing models to take behavioural biases into account, as they
believe it gives them an advantage. If you understand these theories, you could have
that advantage too. It can be difficult to swim against the tide but, in the long
term, you may be very glad you did.